CASS Freight Index March 2026: What the Q1 Shipment and Rate Data Signal for Q2 Strategy
The March 2026 CASS Freight Index report is in, and the headline numbers tell a story that should have every freight procurement manager recalculating their Q2 strategy. Shipments fell 4.5% year-over-year. Expenditures rose 4.2%. The gap between what you're moving and what you're paying just widened further — and it's not closing on its own.
The Numbers That Matter
The Cass Transportation Index, published by Cass Information Systems and compiled by ACT Research, tracks freight activity and costs across a database of $37 billion in paid freight expenses. It's one of the most relied-upon benchmarks in the industry — and March's edition delivers a clear signal: this is a supply-constrained rally, not a demand-driven one.
Key readings from the March 2026 report:
- Cass Freight Index – Shipments: 1.007, down 4.5% year-over-year but up 3.0% month-over-month
- Cass Freight Index – Expenditures: 3.296, up 4.2% year-over-year and up 4.9% versus February
- Cass Truckload Linehaul Index: 145.6, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 0.5% month-over-month
- Seasonally adjusted (SA) shipments: Rose 1.0% month-over-month, building on a 4.3% SA gain in February
On a two-year stacked change basis, March shipments were down 9.5% — a figure that underscores how far freight volumes remain below pre-surge levels, even as pricing has partially recovered. The expenditure picture is more complicated: after record gains of 38% in 2021 and 23% in 2022, followed by drops of 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024, and a near-flat 2025 (down just 0.5%), the 4.2% year-over-year increase in March marks the most significant year-over-year gain since the post-pandemic correction began.
Why Rates Are Rising While Volumes Lag
The March data reveals a pattern that procurement teams need to internalize: the rate recovery is being driven by tightening capacity, not surging demand. This distinction shapes everything about how you should approach Q2 contracting.
Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, put it directly: "Tightness in dry van truckload (TL) conditions is starting to radiate to other markets — so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL — but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well." The key capacity constraint isn't just equipment; it's drivers.
The ACT For-Hire Driver Availability Index fell 4.8 points to 35.0 in March, dropping below the 40 threshold that has marked the start of the past two rate cycles. New nondomicile CDL rules took effect in mid-March, adding further pressure to an already constrained driver pool. Combined with Class 8 tractor sales running below replacement levels, the capacity picture for Q2 looks structurally tight — and rates are following.
What the Q1 Trajectory Means for Q2 Procurement
Here's the tactical reality: spot truckload rates have been rising for four consecutive months. But contract rates — which most shippers rely on for the majority of their freight — haven't caught up yet. That's the window, and it's closing.
For Q2 procurement strategy, three implications stand out:
1. Lock in contract capacity before spot rates migrate upward. The historical lag between spot market moves and contract repricing is typically 60 to 120 days. If your Q2 contracts are expiring or you're procuring fresh capacity for the quarter, the window to lock in at current contract levels is narrowing. Spot rates are already materially higher year-over-year, and carriers are signaling intent to push contract rates up considerably.
2. Expect mode conversion pressure. As truckload rates rise and capacity tightens, LTL carriers will face increased conversion demand from shippers who can't secure or afford TL capacity. This is already radiating into LTL and intermodal markets. If your network relies on LTL for regional lanes, Q2 is not the time to let contract renewals slip. Rate increases in the 5–8% range are already materializing for LTL in May, and the trajectory suggests more.
3. Reevaluate your spot-versus-contract mix. The traditional advice — "stay on contract to benefit from stability" — needs nuance in a supply-led tightening cycle. If you're holding contract lanes at fixed rates while market rates are rising, your carrier relationships may be tested. Conversely, going all-in on spot when capacity is tightening is its own risk. A blended approach, informed by lane-by-lane market intelligence, is the right posture for Q2.
The Bottom Line for Freight Decision-Makers
March 2026 CASS data confirms what the previous two months had been suggesting: the freight market has moved from the bottoming phase to the early cycle, where capacity shortens and rates rise. The seasonally adjusted 1.0% month-over-month shipment gain is encouraging on the volume side — it increases the odds of a second-half 2026 recovery — but the near-term reality is that procurement costs are rising faster than shipment counts.
The ACT Research Freight Forecast projects considerable contract rate increases for truckload ahead, with the current supply-led cycle expected to persist through at least 2028 based on structural driver and equipment constraints. Shippers who wait for certainty before acting will pay more. Those who move now, with smart contract structures and mode diversification, will be better positioned.
The divergence between what you're shipping and what you're spending isn't a temporary anomaly. It's the new baseline until capacity genuinely recovers. Time to adjust.
Ready to see how CXTMS handles freight procurement in a tightening market? Schedule a demo to explore how CXTMS delivers real-time rate intelligence, contract management, and mode optimization to keep your freight strategy ahead of the cycle.
