Record Dry Van and Reefer Contract Rates Need Separate Routing-Guide Triggers
Truckload procurement has delivered a signal that looks contradictory only from a distance: contract prices are setting records while freight volumes decline. The contradiction disappears when dry van and refrigerated capacity are treated as distinct markets rather than two rows in one truckload report.
Logistics Management reported that July dry van contract rates reached $3.01 per mile, up $0.12 sequentially, while reefer contract rates rose $0.07 to $3.29 per mile. Those were record sequential results for both equipment types. Flatbed also increased $0.03 to $3.83 per mile. Yet DAT's Truckload Volume Index showed declining volumes.
That combination matters. It says the price of dependable capacity is separating from aggregate demand. A shipper using one truckload routing-guide threshold will see an average. Operations will experience two different capacity problems.
One truckload index hides two operating realities
A dry van tender primarily tests whether a carrier has a tractor, trailer, driver, and profitable next move. A reefer tender adds refrigeration-unit availability, fuel and maintenance cost, washout requirements, temperature settings, pre-cooling time, pulp-temperature procedures, food-safety controls, and greater claims exposure. Appointment flexibility that saves a van load may be unacceptable for chilled food or pharmaceuticals.
The price gap is already visible. July's reported reefer contract average was $0.28 per mile above dry van. Across a 1,000-mile movement, that is $280 before fuel and accessorial differences. Combining those tenders into a single compliance percentage can make a routing guide appear healthy while reefer loads cascade to expensive backup carriers.
The broader market also warns against waiting for a volume rebound. FreightWaves found that spot rates increased 23.3% and contract rates 5% from March 2025 through February 2026 even as volumes fell sharply. The contract premium compressed to just $0.11 per mile. When spot and contract prices converge, a failed primary tender becomes costly quickly—even in a soft-demand narrative.
Set different triggers for dry van and reefer
A routing guide should promote an operating exception before a lane becomes a procurement emergency. The thresholds below are practical starting points; shippers should tune them by lane, season, customer promise, and commodity.
Dry van tender trigger. Alert when primary-carrier acceptance falls below 90% over a rolling 14-day period, or when three tenders on the same lane reach a third-choice carrier within seven days. Dry van networks often have more substitution options, so a short rolling window can catch carrier disengagement without overreacting to one missed pickup.
Reefer tender trigger. Alert when acceptance falls below 95%, when any temperature-critical load moves beyond the second carrier, or when two failures occur on the same lane in seven days. The higher threshold reflects the cost of a late recovery and the smaller pool of qualified equipment.
Lead-time trigger. For van freight, flag orders tendered inside 24 hours if the lane's four-week acceptance rate is below target. For reefer, begin at 48 hours and add time for pre-cooling, washout, inspection, and appointment confirmation. Lead time should be measured from the first valid tender—not from order creation—so planners cannot hide delays inside incomplete shipment records.
Spot-exposure trigger. Escalate dry van lanes when spot moves exceed 10% of weekly loads or the spot premium exceeds 8% for two weeks. For reefer, use tighter limits: 5% spot exposure or a 5% premium, especially for temperature-sensitive commodities. A lower reefer threshold recognizes that price is only one risk; qualification and temperature control can fail during hurried recovery.
Measure compliance against service, not just price
Routing-guide compliance is often calculated as the percentage of shipments awarded to the intended carrier. That is incomplete. A low-cost carrier that accepts and then misses pickup has not produced compliance in any meaningful sense.
CXTMS can connect each tender response to the shipment's equipment type, lane, promised pickup, delivery appointment, temperature range, carrier rank, and final cost. That creates an equipment-specific scorecard with four essential views:
- first-choice acceptance and acceptance by routing-guide depth;
- pickup and delivery performance by carrier and equipment type;
- contract-to-spot variance, including fuel and accessorials;
- reefer temperature excursions, rejected loads, and claims.
The scorecard should also identify false compliance. If a primary reefer carrier accepts 98% of tenders but repeatedly requests appointment changes or produces temperature exceptions, procurement should not treat that lane as protected. Likewise, a dry van carrier with 88% acceptance may still be useful if backup coverage is inexpensive and service remains stable. The response should follow the operating consequence, not a universal percentage.
Seasonal shocks make separation even more important. Produce regions, holidays, weather, inspection events, and carrier network changes affect reefer and van capacity differently. A recent FreightWaves analysis reported carriers saying contracts set early in the 2026 bid season were not holding. Annual bids alone cannot manage a market that reprices at different speeds by equipment and lane.
Turn routing guides into live controls
Record contract rates amid declining volumes are not a reason to abandon negotiated capacity. They are a reason to monitor whether that capacity is actually available. Separate dry van and reefer rules expose stress earlier, focus procurement reviews on the affected lanes, and prevent a blended truckload metric from concealing service and temperature risk.
CXTMS gives logistics teams one operating record for tenders, carrier selection, appointments, cost, service, and exceptions. Request a CXTMS demo to build routing-guide controls that respond to the freight you move—not an average that hides it.
